MAGA Vipers Predicting Disaster in Florida Abortion Showdown Should Be Careful What They Wish For

If any state can break the pro-life movement's amendment losing streak, it's Ron DeSantis's.

The Florida Supreme Court gave pro-lifers mixed results Monday, in one decision ruling that the Sunshine State’s direct abortion bans can take effect because the Florida Constitution contains no right to abortion, while in another case ruling that a proposed amendment to add one may appear on the November ballot this fall, rejecting the state’s contention that the wording was impermissibly unclear:

Florida’s Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody urged the Florida Supreme Court to reject the amendment, on the grounds that its language was so unclear that it “does not satisfy the legal requirements for ballot placement.” She said that the amendment did not define its legal standard of viability, which can mean “whether a pregnancy is expected to continue developing normally through delivery,” which doctors can determine “usually around about 12 weeks”; or mean “whether a baby can survive outside of the uterus, which currently is around 21 to 25 weeks of pregnancy.”

According to Moody, “this initiative’s sponsor chose to utilize that frequently misrepresented and misinterpreted term […] to increase the chance that this provision will pass as polling shows that more Americans support abortion in the first trimester with that support significantly decreasing as pregnancy progresses.”

However, USA Today reports that, in a 4-3 ruling, the justices rejected the state’s argument on the grounds that, as Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz expressed during oral arguments, “the people of Florida aren’t stupid. They can figure it out.”

The second ruling is unfortunate, but unsurprising. Good people, bad people, and everyone in between have the right to use whatever a given state’s rules may be to pursue ballot initiatives, and any technicality or procedure-based attempt to deny a bad proposal ballot access—however defensible it may be—should be presumed to be an uphill battle, simply because of how many judges will understandably be averse to charges of short-circuiting the process for outcome-based reasons.

As I’ve argued before (chiefly here and here), the real source of pro-lifers’ string of amendment defeats since the midterms is the failure of a corrupt and impotent pro-life establishment to get its messaging and organizational acts together, and more importantly its general failure to shift the culture rightward at scale.

But that’s not what we’re here to here to relitigate today. No, we’re going to talk about the handful of prominent MAGA grifters who couldn’t resist the opportunity to helpfully remind the world that they’re not conservatives and the conservative movement’s most deeply-held causes mean nothing to them.

Clownishly egotistical documentarian Mike Cernovich, who’s been mindlessly demanding we compromise on abortion for months, claims this is part of how Ron DeSantis’s decision to sign a heartbeat law last year will “cost Republicans dearly” by “turn[ing] out massive Democrat numbers” in November. Sleazy Trump hanger-on Roger Stone replied to that, “Proving yet again what a total a**hole Ron Desantis is.” Pizzagate alum Jack Posobiec did a 180 on his past support of heartbeat laws—and condemnation of Republicans who didn’t support them—to pile on DeSantis.

This isn’t principled strategic analysis or genuine concern. Every word of this comes down to three interconnected reasons: first, because Dear Leader Donald Trump has decided he wants to be the great abortion compromiser, meaning all that crap about being the “most pro-life president ever!” is out (except when bilking money out of little old church ladies); second, because Trumpworld needs a scapegoat for the real Trump effect on congressional races, and the MAGA faithful bought it when their leader threw pro-lifers under the bus after the 2022 midterms; and third, because DeSantis really is the effective conservative warrior Trump only plays on TV, so even though the primary is over he still has to be undermined by any means necessary.

So why not try to smear the governor they initially lied about being an abortion compromiser now being the guy who won’t compromise enough on abortion? MAGA’s marks haven’t scrutinized anything they’ve been fed so far, so it’s a safe bet they won’t start now.

However, there are a couple factors to keep in mind with this upcoming abortion amendment battle: first, Florida has a 60% threshold for approving constitutional amendments, which is more votes than pro-abortion measures needed or received in left-wing Michigan or relatively Republican Ohio.

Second, polls disagree on whether the Florida amendment can reach that threshold—Florida’s Voice cites a late 2023 University of North Florida poll finding 62% support including 53% of Republicans (with a 4.37% margin of error), versus a 2022 University of South Florida poll finding only 33.2% supporting abortion “access” while almost 43% supported varying restrictions—and FV’s Eric Daugherty opined that the 2023 UNF poll was “prone to oversampling support,” adding that “I don't buy at all” the finding that a majority of Republicans would cast pro-abortion votes.

Third, this is Ron DeSantis’s Florida we’re talking about—the state where, as of last month, Republicans have an 851,417-vote lead in voter registration. That, DeSantis’s job performance, and his overall decimation of Sunshine State Democrats, all contribute to not just the values and priorities of the electorate but also to its turnout.

None of this is to suggest the abortion amendment is DOA by any means. Its presence on the ballot means there is a very real danger of undoing so much of what DeSantis has done for life and tying Florida pro-lifers’ hands in the future. But if any state stands a chance of breaking the pattern, it’s Florida.

So, while risky, the court’s decision could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, by proving once and for all whether the “choice” turnout monster really is as powerful as the babykillers on the Left and cowards on the Right insist, or if all we really needed to defang it all this time was a crop of competent Republicans who actually believe in and deliver on their promises.